What property downturn? 95% of home resales still turned a profit

Australia’s housing market may have entered a downturn, but you would hardly know it from the large profits being banked by most sellers.

Cotality’s latest Pain and Gain report shows 95.4% of residential properties resold in the June quarter of 2026 delivered a nominal profit, despite national dwelling values falling 1.5% over the same period.

The median gain was a substantial $371,000, while the median loss among the small minority who sold for less than they paid was just $45,000.

The details

The proportion of profitable resales was slightly down from a 21-year high of 96.1%, recorded in the March quarter of 2026, but Cotality Head of Research Gerard Burg says the results underline just how much equity many owners have built up after years of price growth.

“Profitability is still exceptionally high by historical standards, but we are starting to see the impact of weaker housing market conditions flow through to resale outcomes,” Mr Burg says.

“Most sellers are still benefiting from the significant value growth accumulated over the past five years, which is providing considerable protection against the early stages of the downturn.”

Cotality analysed more than 94,000 residential resales across Australia in the June quarter.

Its measure is simple: the latest sale price of a property minus the previous sale price.

It does not adjust for inflation, stamp duty, agents’ fees, renovations, interest costs or other holding expenses, meaning the figures measure “nominal gains” rather than true after-cost investment returns.

Nevertheless, the scale of the gains is striking.

National home values were still 6.7% higher than a year earlier in June, adding almost $59,000 to the median dwelling value over 12 months.

For profitable resales, the typical property had been held for just over nine years, during which the median dwelling value increased by more than $338,000.

That helps explain why a relatively modest market correction has so far had little impact on most sellers’ bottom lines.

Cotality says 97.8% of house resales made a nominal profit in the June quarter, with a median gain of $435,500.

Units were less profitable, but even there the overwhelming majority - 90.5% - still sold for more than their previous purchase price, with a median gain of $251,000.

The weaker unit result is heavily concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne.

Those two cities accounted for 83.3% of the dollar value of unit resale losses nationally.

In Melbourne, 20.8% of unit resales made a loss, compared with just 4.3% of houses, while 11.4% of Sydney units sold below their previous purchase price.

The strongest resale results were in Brisbane.

An extraordinary 99.8% of resales in the Queensland capital delivered a profit during the June quarter of 2026, with sellers recording a median gain of $525,000.

Brisbane has held the title of Australia’s most profitable capital since June 2024.

Adelaide was close behind, with 98.9% of resales profitable and a record median gain of $480,400.

Perth followed at 98.8%, with a median gain of $470,000.

Those figures reflect the extraordinary post-pandemic growth recorded across Australia’s mid-sized capitals.

Brisbane dwelling values rose 108% over the median 8.2-year holding period for profitable resales, while Perth and Adelaide have also enjoyed some of the strongest growth in the country.

Regional Australia performed even better overall than the capitals.

Around 97.5% of regional resales made a profit, compared with 94.1% across the combined capital cities.

However, profitable capital-city resales delivered bigger windfalls, with a median gain of $415,000 compared with $324,500 in regional markets.

One of the clearest findings from Cotality’s report is the relationship between holding time and profitability.

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The median holding period for a profitable property resale was 9.1 years nationally, compared with 8.1 years for a loss-making sale.

For houses, the difference was much larger.

A profitable house had typically been held for 9.3 years, while a loss-making house had been owned for just 4.4 years.

“Owners who have held their property for nine or 10 years have generally experienced several periods of value growth, giving them a much larger equity buffer when market conditions weaken,” Mr Burg says.

“Recent buyers have had much less time to accumulate those gains and are therefore more exposed when values fall, particularly if they bought close to a market peak.”

Western Australia produced some of the biggest individual gains.

Chittering, north-east of Perth, recorded the highest median nominal profit in the country at $872,500, after dwelling values rose more than 180% from their pre-pandemic lows.

Cambridge followed with a median gain of $740,000 and Joondalup $732,500.

Sydney’s Mosman and Woollahra, along with lifestyle markets such as Kiama on the NSW South Coast and Noosa on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, also featured among the most profitable locations.

Cotality cautions that falling values mean resale profitability could weaken further in coming quarters.

But the current numbers hardly portray a market in distress.

More than 19 out of every 20 properties resold in the June quarter made a nominal profit, and the typical successful seller walked away with a gain of $371,000 before costs.

For long-term owners in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and much of regional Australia, the current downturn has so far barely scratched the gains accumulated over previous years.

The more important lesson may be less about trying to pick the exact top or bottom of the market and more about time in it.

As Mr Burg puts it, “the likelihood of a profitable resale generally increases with time.”