Queensland’s housing pipeline hits a $5.4bn feasibility wall

Queensland’s new housing pipeline is showing encouraging signs of life, with a record number of homes now under construction across the state.

But beneath the headline number sits a much harder reality: thousands of planned apartments in the state’s south-east are still failing to make it from the drawing board to construction, putting the State Government’s housing ambitions at risk.

The details

Queensland’s Crisafulli Government says the number of homes under construction in the state has risen by more than 35% in two years and has now reached a record for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Yet new data show more than 10,000 apartments across Brisbane and the Gold Coast are currently deferred, representing about $5.4 billion worth of proposed development.

So, while the Sunshine State does not appear to have a shortage of proposed housing, it currently has a shortage of projects that are actually financially viable to build.

More than 52,500 homes are currently under construction across Queensland, while the state is also spending heavily on infrastructure and pursuing ambitious long-term housing targets.

But apartment development in south-east Queensland tells a less encouraging story.

Research by estate agents PRD shows 112 projects containing 10,286 apartments have been postponed or placed on hold across Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Brisbane accounts for 6,711 deferred apartments across 71 developments, worth almost $2.5 billion.

Another 3,575 apartments across 41 Gold Coast developments, worth about $2.9 billion, are also on hold.

PRD Chief Economist Diaswati Mardiasmo says the number of apartments in deferred Brisbane developments was almost equal to the number in projects commencing construction.

She says the figures exposed the “enormous challenges” facing developers, particularly escalating material and labour costs, and warned Queensland would remain structurally undersupplied despite recent improvements in the housing pipeline.

An apartment can be approved, marketed and attract buyer interest without ever reaching the construction stage, often because the numbers no longer stack up for developers.

Property consultancy Charter Keck Cramer estimates the construction cost of a comparable middle-ring Brisbane apartment project rose 105% between 2020 and 2025, with the cost per dwelling increasing from around $345,000 to almost $710,000.

Many Brisbane apartment builders already have their books filled for the next three to four years, while Charter Keck Cramer says finding a third-party builder has become “extremely difficult”.

The consultancy expects the pressure to intensify as construction for the 2032 Olympics accelerates and competition for skilled labour and materials becomes even more intense from 2027–28.

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Charter Keck Cramer National Executive Director Richard Temlett says fears that Brisbane and the Gold Coast could end up with too many apartments are misplaced.

“I don’t believe there will be any oversupply. There is a major shortage of builders on both the Gold Coast and Brisbane, and if anything, much of the approved stock won’t get built,” he says.

It’s a problem Charter Keck Cramer has been warning about for some time.

Speaking about south-east Queensland’s housing challenge last year, Richard Temlett said the biggest constraint was the industry’s ability to physically deliver the volume of homes required.

“It’s the capacity of the industry to actually facilitate what we need,” he said.

“South-east Queensland is one of the most chronically undersupplied housing segments of Australia. Supply hasn’t kept up with growth … and it needs to be mobilised at scale.”

Approved does not mean built

The current Brisbane apartment backlog includes some large projects, including the 752-apartment Breakfast Creek Quarter project, a 551-apartment development in Fortitude Valley and the 525-apartment Trilogy project at Kangaroo Point.

On the Gold Coast, major deferred projects include the 889-apartment La Pelago development at Surfers Paradise and more than 500 proposed apartments in later stages of Paradiso Place.

“Queensland doesn’t have a shortage of housing projects in the pipeline, it has a shortage of homes making it through to delivery,” says Jess Caire, the Property Council Queensland’s Executive Director.

Urbis research commissioned by the Property Council found 35% of Brisbane apartment projects scheduled beyond 2027 were at moderate or high risk of delay.

On the Gold Coast, around 60% of apartments due for completion in 2028 and 2029 faced similar risks.

The consequences extend well beyond developers.

If fewer apartments are completed, rental supply will remain tight.

That means structural undersupply is likely to keep apartment prices elevated and relatively resilient to interest rate movements, while renters could face continued pressure as delays restrict the number of new homes entering the market.