Global capital backs Australian housing despite market jitters

A giant Japanese corporation is shrugging off concerns about Australia’s slowing property market, and is set to take a strategic long-term stake in a major master-planned residential estate in Melbourne’s west.

The news that Mitsubishi Estate Asia is set to buy a 49% stake in the Eynesbury Estate came as Sydney and Melbourne experienced their weakest auction weekends in five years.

Auction results

Data from Cotality Australia shows the national preliminary auction clearance rate edged slightly higher last weekend (June 27-28, 2026), rising to 49.2%, from 47.4% a week ago.

Cotality said it was the second consecutive week where the preliminary clearance rate has held below 50%.

Auction clearance rates are generally regarded as a good barometer of property market confidence, with clearance rates below about 65% usually indicating a “buyer’s market”.

Cotality’s Head of Research, Tim Lawless, said that at 50.2%, the number of Melbourne auctions reporting a successful outcome was the lowest preliminary clearance rate since the week ending September 5th, 2021 (44.5%) “when Melbourne was enduring its 6th period of strict lockdowns”.

In Sydney, Mr Lawless said the preliminary clearance rate eased slightly from the previous week to 47.3%, which was “the lowest early outcome since the week ending April 19, 2020.”

Brisbane - where only 139 auctions were held - saw a 39.9% early success rate.

While this is low, it was a significant 6% improvement on the previous weekend.

A bounce in Adelaide, where the preliminary clearance rate hit a healthy 68.7%, helped lift the national rate, although volumes were relatively low, with only 115 homes up for auction.

“Considering the revision between the preliminary and final auction clearance rate has averaged 5.0 percentage points over the past four weeks, we are likely to see the auction clearance once again finalise in the low 40% range,” Mr Lawless said.

Cotality’s monthly residential home value index for June, which will be released later this week, is again expected to show prices easing in Australia’s two largest residential property markets - Sydney and Melbourne, with the pace of growth slowing further in the mid-sized capitals of Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

Market watchers say the softer price performance and weaker clearance rates come as the full effect of three interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia has hit, particularly on the borrowing capacity of potential buyers.

That’s been compounded by the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, the Middle East conflict and uncertainty - particularly for property investors - caused by the Albanese government’s tax changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax and SMSF property investment.

Mitsubishi’s long-term bet

The auction results came as the Australian Financial Review revealed Japanese property giant Mitsubishi Estate Asia is in advanced talks to buy a 49% stake in Resimax’s flagship Eynesbury Estate in Melbourne’s western growth corridor.

If completed, the $700 million deal would be one of the largest property transactions of 2026 and another clear sign that major offshore investors remain bullish about the medium to long-term outlook for Australian housing.

Eynesbury, about 40 minutes from Melbourne’s CBD near Werribee, is a large master-planned residential estate and township.

Once completed, it’s expected to include an early learning centre, a primary school, retail, health and community services, hospitality venues, plus the existing golf course.

There’s also a proposal for a luxury hotel, conference centre, day spa and mountain bike tracks.

Mitsubishi Estate Asia’s interest in Eynesbury suggests major global capital is looking beyond the short-term cycle and focusing instead on Australia’s chronic housing undersupply.

The Tokyo-listed property giant has already invested in Australian real estate projects worth more than $18 billion, with about 80% of its $3 billion in equity invested in housing.

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In February, Mitsubishi Estate’s Australian head, Yosuke Matsunaga, told the AFR that the company’s main focus is on the residential market.

“Our main focus area is the living sector,” Matsunaga said.

“It’s another build-to-rent development opportunity, or a land lease community is also one target.

“Also, build-to-sell or a master-planned community or land subdivision,” he said.

That strategy is now playing out across some of Australia’s biggest residential projects.

Mitsubishi Estate Asia has partnered with Lendlease on the conversion of the 175 Liverpool Street office tower in Sydney into a $2.5 billion luxury apartment complex.

It has also taken a two-thirds stake in Lendlease’s $3 billion One Circular Quay project and a half stake in Mirvac’s $2.3 billion Harbourside redevelopment in Sydney’s Darling Harbour.

Its potential move into Eynesbury would broaden that exposure into master-planned communities and greenfield housing supply.

While local buyers and investors may be more cautious, global institutional capital appears to see the same fundamentals that continue to support Australian housing: population growth, undersupply, limited new construction and strong long-term demand for well-located residential communities.

Mitsubishi’s potential move on Eynesbury shows that deep-pocketed offshore investors are still prepared to back housing supply at scale — a strong vote of confidence in Australian residential property.