Home prices higher in April despite global and domestic uncertainty

Australian home prices have shrugged off a global trade war and uncertainty caused by a federal election to reach new record highs.

Two measures of home prices - Cotality’s national Home Value Index and PropTrack’s Home Price Index - both grew in April.

Both data analytics firms say the pace of growth is slowing.

However, PropTrack says an expected interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia later this month could see price growth pick up again, as potential buyers will have more borrowing capacity and existing homeowners will see their mortgage repayments decline.

Cotality’s Home Value Index

Cotality’s national Home Value Index recorded a third straight month of growth in April, with Australian dwelling values up 0.3% to a new record high.

The company, formerly known as CoreLogic, says the rise in values has added approximately $2,720 to the median value of an Australian home over the month taking it to $825,349.

Every capital city saw a lift in home values, ranging from a 0.2% rise in Sydney and Melbourne to a large 1.1% monthly gain in Darwin.

While Cotality’s index showed a broad-based rise, not every individual market is at record highs.

At $1,194,709, the median home in Sydney remains 1.1% below a September 2024 high, while Melbourne’s median value ($786,158) is 5.4% down from a record peak in 2022.

While national growth was positive, the pace eased slightly from March (+0.4%), which Cotality says is due to weaker buyer sentiment and lower auction clearance rates.

“The rate cut in February supported an upwards inflection in housing market conditions, but the positive influence from lower rates seems to be losing some potency,” says Tim Lawless, Cotality’s research director.

“At the same time, household confidence slipped in April, with the US’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements and the upcoming federal election causing uncertainty.

“It is likely this may be causing some buyers and sellers to delay their decisions,” he says.

Mr Lawless also points to a slowdown in buying and selling in April, with less homes going to auction and less new listings coming onto the market.

He believes this could be explained by a ‘super break’ many Australians took between Easter and the ANZAC Day public holidays.

Looking ahead, Tim Lawless says expected rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia could lead to an uptick in values.

“With further rate cuts likely as soon as May 20th, and a level of certainty returning to the market after the federal election on May 3rd, we expect a further modest rise in values for 2025,” he says.

PropTrack’s Home Price Index

REA Group’s PropTrack Home Price Index hit a new peak in April, increasing 0.2% over the month to sit 3.7% higher than a year ago.

PropTrack estimates the median price of a home in Australia is now $805.000.

Capital cities saw growth of 0.2% over the month and now sit 3.4% above April 2024 levels.

All capitals recorded price growth in April, with Adelaide (+0.3%) and Melbourne (+0.3%) leading the gains.

Sydney (+0.1%) and Perth (+0.1%) saw the most muted gains.

PropTrack says over the past year Adelaide (+10.8%) was also the strongest-performing capital, overtaking Perth (+9.3%).

However, REA Group says some of the steam is coming out of the booming mid-sized capitals.

“The rate of price growth is moderating in outperforming cities such as Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane, while underperformers such as Melbourne, Canberra, and Sydney have started to pick up,” REA Group Senior Economist Anne Flaherty says.

“This is lessening the divergence in home price growth seen across the country over the past year.”

Despite positive price growth across the country in April, Ms Flaherty points out the rate of price growth has slowed compared to the first three months of 2025.

However, she says this could change quickly.

“Should interest rates fall in May, we may see the rate of growth pick up again as borrowing capacities increase and mortgage repayments decline.”

REA Group’s Anne Flaherty also thinks momentum in the property market may pick up after the Federal election.

“With housing affordability a key issue…both Labor and the Coalition have announced policy incentives for first-home buyers.

“As a result, many of these buyers may be biding their time to get into the market after the election and the launch of these policies.

“Whichever party is elected, the combination of increased first home buyer incentives, lower interest rates, and supply-side challenges are expected to contribute to even higher property prices in 2025,” she says.